Trade wars, threats of annexation: How Trump is changing the course of Canada’s election

Just five months ago, a Conservative Party victory in Canada seemed all but certain.

Justin Trudeau, Canada’s prime minister and leader of the Liberal Party, was widely unpopular, and polls showed the Conservatives with what seemed like an insurmountable 25-point lead.

Then U.S. voters went to the polls. Donald Trump’s victory started to reverberate in Canada.

He imposed tariffs, including a 25% levy on Canadian goods; claimed fentanyl from China was pouring into the U.S. from the northern border; and threatened Canadian sovereignty, saying Canada should be made the 51st state as well as referring to Trudeau as “Governor Trudeau.”

Many Canadians became angry. Visits to the U.S. began falling and some boycotted American products. Then, Trudeau resigned in March, and the Liberals elected Mark Carney as their new leader.

The 25-point lead the Conservatives once had has been eviscerated, and support for the Liberals has grown.

Now, with an election set for Monday, April 28, pollsters are saying the Conservatives have lost too much ground to make up. Polls are predicting a loss for the Conservatives and leader Pierre Poilievre.

Canada has a parliamentary system. Hence, if Liberals win a majority of seats in the election, or are able to form a minority government with members of another party, Carney becomes Prime Minister.

Political experts and Canadians said that Trump undoubtedly changed the course of the election.

“There is no rebound for the Liberal Party if Donald Trump doesn’t intervene in the way that he does,” Tari Ajadi, an assistant professor in the department of political science at McGill University in Montreal, told ABC News.

“If Donald Trump hadn’t won a second term, I don’t think there would be any hope for the Liberals, regardless of whether or not they changed leader at this point,” he said. “But once Trump did win that second term, and once Trump did try to infringe upon Canadian sovereignty, it changed the entire race.”

Trump fractures U.S.-Canada alliance

At the beginning of 2025, the Liberal Party was facing a crisis. Trudeau, who had been prime minister since November 2015, had initially been “extremely popular,” according to Adam Chapnick, a professor of defense studies at Canadian Forces College in Toronto.

However, he was plagued by unpopularity in later years due to an escalated cost-of-living crisis in Canada, and minor scandals. Several of his cabinet ministers resigned in 2024 amid lack of confidence in his leadership.

Trudeau was required by Canadian law to call an election by October 2025, and his party seemed sure to lose.

Frank Graves, a Canadian pollster and founder of Ekos Research Associates, told ABC News that in January 2025, things did not look good for the Liberal Party.

“The Liberals reached a modern low of 19-point support. That’s very little for the Liberal Party,” he said. “In fact, [that] was a record for the 20th century. At the same time, the Conservative Party was running at 44 points, with a massive 25-point lead, which would have been a sure majority.”

He went on, “It looks like the Conservatives are in a position to just sip beer and cruise to the finish line and get their majority.”

As early as December, just weeks after Trump won his second term, Trump made comments that Canada should become the 51st state and referred to Trudeau as “Governor Trudeau.”

Although initially brushed off by Canadian officials, Trump continued to float 51st state rhetoric and began threats of imposing tariffs on Canada in January.

Trump also began arguing that the border drawn between the U.S. and Canada is just arbitrary.

Ajadi said that although Trudeau decided to resign as prime minister and Liberal Party leader, it still looked like the Liberals would lose no matter who emerged as the next leader — but that’s when Trump’s comments kicked into high gear.

“It still looked like the Liberals were dead in the water, regardless of who would come in as prime minister,” he said. “But when Donald Trump really started amping up this 51st state rhetoric, when he threatened the tariffs and eventually implemented the tariffs … it completely shifted the way that the polls were going.”

Carney gains support

In early March, Canada’s Liberal Party announced Mark Carney was chosen to succeed Trudeau after party members voted in a nominating contest between four candidates.

Carney, who was governor of the Bank of Canada, is credited with helping to guide the country through the worst of the 2008 financial crisis and, as former governor of the Bank of England, helping guide the U.K. through Brexit.

Ajadi said that Carney has come across to voters as “incredibly capable and well-educated” and as someone who can navigate challenges posed by Trump’s rhetoric.

“He can say, ‘Look at my resume. I’ve been able to help countries navigate and I’ve been able to negotiate things for two different G7 countries,'” Ajadi said. “Like, ‘I have this wealth of experience and, no, I’m not a politician, but I am someone who has been able to navigate really contentious political conversations.'”

This had led to a net-22 positive rating for Carney in the polls, according to Graves.

Poilievre loses support

While Carney and the Liberals have seen increasing support, Poilievre and the Conservatives have seen decreasing support.

Although opposition leaders have tried to paint Poilievre as being equivalent to Trump, political experts told ABC News he has many policies that differ from Trump.

However, some of Poilievre’s rhetoric has been viewed by Canadians as Trump-esque, such as his embrace of populist sentiments and calling opponents by nicknames, experts have said.

Additionally, Graves said Poilievre struggled to pivot his campaign from a series of mantras about how “Canada is broken” to addressing threats from the Trump administration.

“It’s hard to abandon a strategy which had propelled you to such a comfortable position in the polls overnight, which is almost what was required,” Graves said.

Throughout February, the Conservatives’ lead in the polls began to evaporate, according to Graves. He said by the end of February, Liberals achieved a solid lead, which has since extended since Carney became prime minister.

Graves added that taking on the U.S. is the biggest issue now to Canadians, more than the cost of living. When poll participants were asked who they have the most confidence in, Carney had a significant advantage.

“Because the [Conservatives were] still focused on the government, there was an opportunity for the Liberal leadership to take control of the narrative on how to respond to the president, and Mr. Carney did so,” Chapnick said. “And as Mr. Carney became associated with the leader who was going to stop Canada from becoming the 51st state, Liberal support skyrocketed.”

Canadians are put off by Trump’s actions

Political experts said they’ve noticed the anger Canadians have toward the U.S. in the wake of Trump’s rhetoric.

“Canadians are trying not to travel to the United States,” Chapnick said. “They’re trying not to buy American products. This idea that we can no longer rely on the United States has led to some pretty significant changes.”

Airlines and state tourism boards said they’ve seen travel from Canada to the U.S. drop in February and March.

Canadian citizen Garry Liboiron told ABC News he views Poilievre as a “mini Trump,” which will “definitely play against him.”

Garry Liboiron and his wife, Liz Liboiron, said that “the name-calling and all the childish rhetoric” has led them to sell their winter home in San Tan Valley, Arizona, a place they typically retreat to when their hometown of Coburg — which is an hour east of Toronto — is pummeled with snow in the winter months.

“It’s pretty sad because we’re not forced to leave, but we almost feel like we’re being pushed with the rhetoric that’s coming out of Washington these days toward Canadians and Canada,” Liz Liboiron told ABC News.

The two are on their “farewell tour” of the U.S., traveling to their favorite places for the last time, with no real indication they will ever return due to the “present circumstances” of the Trump administration.

“Liz and I don’t understand how this is allowed to go on and the things that are happening just seem to get more and more scary as each day goes on. So, we said, ‘Let’s sell now,'” Garry Liboiron said.

Garry Liboiron said he thinks the Canadian election will result in a Liberal majority win. He has noticed Carney’s popularity “[shoot] up like a rocket.”

Canadian Cam Hayden, who has traveled to 45 of the 50 states and is a frequent visitor of the U.S., also decided to boycott the nation shortly after the presidential election.

When Trump made claims of annexing Canada, it was a moment Hayden calls “the breaking point.”

“I said, ‘Forget it, I’m never going back until there’s a change in the administration and a change in attitude,'” Hayden told ABC News.

Hayden, the owner of the Edmonton Music Festival, used to travel to the U.S. to see different performers. He made many friends in America over the years, but said he cannot support the country with the current administration in place.

“I keep in touch with my friends [in the U.S.], and we’re still good friends. It’s just that I cannot see myself supporting an administration that has made the comment that they would like to annex the country I live in,” Hayden said.

ABC News’ Victoria Beaule, Bill Hutchinson, Ivan Pereira and Sam Sweeney contributed to this report.