A flurry of major economic news over the coming days will provide a barometer of the U.S. economy as President Donald Trump’s tariffs steer the nation toward a trade policy untested in recent history.
The economy has largely hummed along so far this year, defying doomsday warnings from many forecasters fearful of the effects of levies. A cascade of major indicators and a key policy decision this week could display continued resilience or reveal signs of a cooldown, economic experts told ABC News.
“It’s a huge week – this is the Super Bowl for economic data,” Michael Jones, an economist at the University of Cincinnati, told ABC News. “It’s certainly a test for Trump’s tariff policy.”
For starters, a fresh report on gross domestic product, or GDP, on Wednesday will offer the latest look at what’s considered the top gauge of economic health.
Economists expect the GDP to have grown at 2.3% on an annualized basis over three months ending in June, rebounding from a contraction of -0.5% during the previous quarter.
“The big thing that we’ll be looking for is the GDP number,” William Hauk, a professor of economics at the University of South Carolina who studies international trade, told ABC News. “A surprisingly strong number would be a good sign for tariffs.”
The modest but steady level of growth expected by economists would suggest economic activity remained largely unbothered by tariffs, but the data may be clouded by the levies, analysts said.
The government’s GDP formula subtracts imports in an effort to exclude foreign production from the calculation of total goods and services. Changes in the reading on this account do not reveal either underlying economic weakness or strength.
The measure of GDP fell over the first three months of the year, largely due to a surge of imports as firms stockpiled inventory to avoid far-reaching tariffs. Conversely, a potential dropoff in imports over the second quarter could inflate the second quarter GDP figure, analysts said.
Hours after the GDP report, the Federal Reserve will announce its latest decision on the level of interest rates.
Investors peg the chances of interest rates holding steady at an overwhelming 97%, according to the CME FedWatch Tool, a measure of market sentiment.
Such a decision would mark five meetings and seven months since the Fed last adjusted interest rates. The federal funds rate stands between 4.25% and 4.5%, preserving much of a sharp increase imposed in response to a pandemic-era bout of inflation.
The Fed has adopted a wait-and-see approach as it observes the effects of Trump’s tariffs. A decision to hold interest rates steady would indicate persistent concern among Fed policymakers about the possibility of substantial inflation as a result of the tariffs, analysts said.
The decision is set to arrive less than a week after Trump made an unusual visit to the Fed, ratcheting up pressure on the central bank as the president calls for lower interest rates.
“The Fed chair has made clear he’s data dependent,” Jones said. “He won’t make decisions on a whim or at Trump’s command.”
In this April 8, 2025, file photo cargo ships are seen at the Port Newark Container Terminal in Newark, New Jersey.
Charly Triballeau/AFP via Getty Images, FILE
On Friday, the federal government will release a jobs report, offering a lens into hiring decisions made by employers and, in turn, their sense of confidence in the economic outlook.
Economists expect the U.S. to have added 100,000 jobs in July, which would mark solid hiring but a slowdown from 147,000 jobs added a month prior. The anticipated performance would come in below a monthly average of 130,000 jobs added so far this year.
“The labor market is not collapsing, but it is starting to run on tired legs,” Cory Stahle, an economist at Indeed, told ABC News in a statement.
Even as the initial economic impact of tariffs takes shape, the policy remains in flux.
The flurry of economic news this week will coincide with a legal test that could undo a major swathe of tariffs. A federal appeals court is set to hear oral arguments on Thursday after a pair of rulings in May cast doubt over the emergency authority invoked by Trump to impose so-called “reciprocal tariffs.”
Meanwhile, the White House is threatening additional tariffs on dozens of countries as it races toward a deadline on Friday. Trump struck trade agreements in recent days with major trade partners like Japan and the European Union, but key partners remain without a deal.
While fresh information this week could prove significant, forecasters still face challenges posed by fluctuating tariffs and unforeseen shifts in the data, Jones said.
“I wouldn’t take too strong of a conclusion from just one week,” Jones added.
