The college football season begins in earnest this week, and the schedule features three top-10 matchups that will give a leg up to the winners in the race to make the 12-team College Football Playoff. None is bigger than No. 1 Texas at No. 3 Ohio State on Saturday.
There also are the usual early season mismatches that, barring upsets, will mean nothing in the big picture.
Of the 22 games involving Top 25 teams, nine of the opponents are from the second-tier Championship Subdivision. Overall, 47 of the 91 Week 1 games will involve an FCS team, tied for second most since 2010. There were 59 FBS-FCS Week 1 matchups last year.
The picks for FBS vs. FBS games, with Associated Press Top 25 rankings and lines from BetMGM Sportsbook:
Arch Manning in the Horseshoe against the defending national champions. Now that’s an opener! And guess what: these two teams might square off again in the postseason. It’s a big stage for untested Buckeyes QB Julian Sayin to start for the first time. Look for Jeremiah Smith to make game-turning plays.
Pick: Ohio State 31-28.
Don’t expect Drew Allar and the rest of the starters to play much in the second half against the first of three straight lightweight opponents. Nevada lost six straight to end 2024 and is picked last in the Mountain West. The Wolfpack are playing the highest-ranked opponent in program history and will get $1.45 million for their trouble.
Pick: Penn State 52-3.
This is the best quarterback matchup of the week. Clemson’s Cade Klubnik is the AP preseason All-America first-team QB; LSU’s Garrett Nussmeier is the second-team QB. Both are leading Heisman Trophy contenders. Clemson gets the nod at home against an LSU team that has lost five straight openers.
Pick: Clemson 38-31.
The only other time these teams met was in 2004. Marshall came in 0-2 with close losses to Troy and Ohio State and Georgia entered 2-0, ranked No. 3 and on its way to a 10-2 season. The Bulldogs narrowly escaped, winning 13-3. Kirby Smart and his guys won’t let it be that close.
Pick: Georgia 45-10.
The third, and final, top-10 matchup of the week pits Georgia transfer QB Carson Beck against an Irish defense bringing back seven starters from the team that reached the CFP championship game. CJ Carr, who played a total of four snaps for Notre Dame last season, gets his first start.
Pick: Miami 21-17.
The Crimson Tide have ample motivation after a late-season slide kept them out of the CFP. Added fuel was added when Seminoles QB Thomas Castellanos said of the Tide: “They don’t have Nick Saban to save them. I just don’t see them stopping me.” Alabama LB Deontae Lawson’s response: “All disrespect will be addressed accordingly.”
Pick: Alabama 35-17.
A Beamer Bowl of sorts on Sunday. South Carolina coach Shane Beamer’s dad, Frank, was a beloved coach of the Hokies, and VaTech is where Shane played and spent five years as an assistant. Gamecocks won six straight to end last season and bring back rising star QB LaNorris Sellers. Hokies dual-threat QB Kyron Drones also could be a handful.
Pick: South Carolina 27-24.
The debut of QB Bryce Underwood makes this game worth watching, at least for a while. The No. 1 national recruit in the 2025 class should provide an immediate spark to what was the country’s worst passing offense outside the service academies. Lobos have their third coach in three years.
Pick: Michigan 55-7.
Like Alabama, the Aggies are smarting from an underwhelming finish to 2024. A&M gets back Le’Veon Moss, who is coming off a knee injury that cost him the last four games. How much he’ll be used against the Roadrunners is to be determined. QB Marcel Reed will be too much to handle for UTSA.
Pick: Texas A&M 42-10.
It’s going to be a while before we know if the Hoosiers have staying power after Curt Cignetti’s breakthrough season. The Monarchs, a middling Sun Belt Conference outfit, are the toughest of Indiana’s three nonconference opponents. Kennesaw State and Indiana State follow. Cal transfer QB Fernando Mendoza makes his Hoosiers debut.
Pick: Indiana 45-10.
No surprise, the Rebels will have a new look. Lane Kiffin had a program-record eight players taken in the NFL draft and he brings back only four starters. His 30-man transfer class was one of the highest ranked in the country. The Sun Belt Conference’s Panthers, who won three games a year ago, get a $1.6 million guarantee.
Pick: Mississippi 55-14.
Fifth-year QB Joey Aguilar set records in two seasons at Appalachian State, spent the spring at UCLA and moved to Rocky Top to take over for Nico Iamaleava. Aguilar is a dual threat who should be able to exploit a defense that was mediocre against the pass and gave up 5.02 yards per rush. Syracuse brings back only seven starters from its 10-win team.
Pick: Tennessee 31-10.
The post-Ashton Jeanty era begins Thursday for the Broncos, who open on the road for the fifth straight year. QB Maddux Madsen and 14 other starters return from Boise’s CFP team. USF QB Byrum Brown is one of the American Conference’s best if he can stay healthy. Bulls prioritized upgrading their defense with offseason moves.
Pick: Boise State 28-21.
___
Get poll alerts and updates on the AP Top 25 throughout the season. Sign up here. AP college football: https://apnews.com/hub/ap-top-25-college-football-poll and https://apnews.com/hub/college-football
